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Author:

Hong, Wei-Chiang (Hong, Wei-Chiang.) | Dong, Yucheng (Dong, Yucheng.) | Chen, Li-Yueh (Chen, Li-Yueh.) | Panigrahi, B. K. (Panigrahi, B. K..) | Wei, Shih-Yung (Wei, Shih-Yung.)

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CPCI-S Scopus EI

Abstract:

Application of support vector regression (SVR) with chaotic sequence and evolutionary algorithms not only could improve forecasting accuracy performance, but also could effectively avoid converging prematurely. However, the tendency of electric load sometimes reveals cyclic changes due to seasonal economic activities or climate seasonal nature. The applications of SVR model to deal with cyclic electric load forecasting have not been widely explored. This investigation presents a SVR-based electric load forecasting model which applied a novel hybrid algorithm, namely chaotic genetic algorithm-simulated annealing algorithm (CGASA), to improve the forecasting performance. In addition, seasonal adjustment mechanism is also employed to deal with cyclic electric loading tendency. A numerical example from an existed reference is used to elucidate the forecasting performance of the proposed seasonal support vector regression with chaotic genetic algorithm, namely SSVRCGASA model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than ARIMA and TF-epsilon-SVR-SA models in existed papers. Therefore, the SSVRCGASA model is a promising alternative for electric load forecasting.

Keyword:

Chaotic genetic algorithm-simulated annealing (CGASA) Cyclic electric load forecasting Seasonal adjustment mechanism Support vector regression (SVR)

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Hong, Wei-Chiang; Wei, Shih-Yung] Oriental Inst Technol, Dept Informat Management, 58,Sec 2,Sichuan Rd, Taipei 220, Taiwan
  • [ 2 ] [Dong, Yucheng] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Xian, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Li-Yueh] MingDao Univ, Dept Global Market & Logist, Changhua, Taiwan
  • [ 4 ] [Panigrahi, B. K.] Ind Technol Inst, Dept Elect Engn, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India

Reprint Author's Address:

  • Oriental Inst Technol, Dept Informat Management, 58,Sec 2,Sichuan Rd, Taipei 220, Taiwan.

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Source :

PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOFT COMPUTING FOR PROBLEM SOLVING (SOCPROS 2011), VOL 1

ISSN: 1867-5662

Year: 2012

Volume: 130

Page: 833-+

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 2

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 4

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