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Author:

Lin, Chaofan (Lin, Chaofan.) | Bie, Zhaohong (Bie, Zhaohong.) | Pan, Chaoqiong (Pan, Chaoqiong.) | Liu, Shiyu (Liu, Shiyu.)

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Abstract:

Currently, the increasing wind power penetration, with consequent randomness and variability, presents great challenges to power system planning and operation. Probabilistic power flow (PPF) has been developed to calculate the power flow under uncertain circumstances. However, the current wind power models are subject to specific probability distributions, limiting their accuracies in wider applications. Additionally, the cumulant method (CM)-based PPF, if nonlinear relationship is considered in, would face an impractically high computational complexity. To address these problems in modeling and cumulant calculation, this article proposes a novel generalized density/distribution fitting method (GDFM) combining with the Copula function to establish a joint probability model for wind power generation. A special impulse- mixed probability density (IMPD) integration method is also introduced to derive the input cumulants from the model. Finally, a fast cumulant method (FCM) is proposed to reduce the computational burden of output cumulant calculation while retaining a high accuracy in a nonlinear context. Case study on the IEEE-118 test system validates the effectiveness of the proposed methods, and a real application to a provincial power grid in China provides some useful power flow risk information for decision making. The whole FCM-based PPF scheme can be helpful for future power flow examination in power system planning and operation. © 1969-2012 IEEE.

Keyword:

Decision making Electric load flow Electric power generation Electric power system planning Electric power transmission networks Probability distributions Wind power

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Lin, Chaofan]State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Shaanxi Province Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an; 710049, China
  • [ 2 ] [Bie, Zhaohong]State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Shaanxi Province Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an; 710049, China
  • [ 3 ] [Pan, Chaoqiong]State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Shaanxi Province Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an; 710049, China
  • [ 4 ] [Liu, Shiyu]State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Shaanxi Province Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an; 710049, China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Lin, Chaofan]State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Shaanxi Province Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an; 710049, China;;

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Source :

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

ISSN: 0885-8950

Year: 2020

Issue: 4

Volume: 35

Page: 2537-2548

6 . 6 6 3

JCR@2020

6 . 6 6 3

JCR@2020

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:59

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 18

SCOPUS Cited Count: 52

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 7

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