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Author:

Yang, Yifan (Yang, Yifan.) | Guo, Ju'e (Guo, Ju'e.) | Sun, Shaolong (Sun, Shaolong.) | Li, Yixin (Li, Yixin.)

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Abstract:

Faced with the growing research toward crude oil price fluctuations influential factors following the accelerated development of Internet technology, accessible data such as Google search volume index (GSVI) are increasingly quantified and incorporated into forecasting approaches. In this study, we apply multi-scale data that including both traditional economic data and GSVI data reflecting macro and micro mechanisms affecting crude oil price respectively, so as to reduce the forecasting deviation and improve the forecasting accuracy at source. In addition, a new hybrid approach: K-meansKPCAKELM based on 'divide and conquer' strategy is proposed for deeply exploring the information of above multi-data so that improve monthly crude oil price forecasting accuracy. Empirical results can be analyzed from data and method levels. At the data level, GSVI data perform better than economic data in level forecasting accuracy but with opposite performance in directional forecasting accuracy because of 'Herd Behavior', while hybrid data combined their advantages and obtain best forecasting performance in both level and directional accuracy. At the method level, the approaches with 'divide and conquer' strategy gain a better forecasting performance, which demonstrates that 'divide and conquer' strategy can effectively improve the forecasting performance. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd

Keyword:

Behavioral research Crude oil Forecasting Learning systems Search engines

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Yang, Yifan]School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China, China
  • [ 2 ] [Guo, Ju'e]School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China, China
  • [ 3 ] [Sun, Shaolong]School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China, China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Yixin]School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China, China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Sun, Shaolong]School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China, China;;

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Source :

Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence

ISSN: 0952-1976

Year: 2021

Volume: 101

6 . 2 1 2

JCR@2020

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:30

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 3

SCOPUS Cited Count: 50

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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