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Author:

Xie Shaoyu (Xie Shaoyu.) | Wang Xiuli (Wang Xiuli.) | Qu Chong (Qu Chong.) | Wang Xifan (Wang Xifan.) | Guo Jingli (Guo Jingli.)

Indexed by:

SCIE EI Scopus

Abstract:

As wind power penetration becomes increasingly significant, the impact of the intermittent and stochastic wind energy on power systems reliability urgently needs to be assessed. This paper examines the impacts of different wind speed simulation methods on the adequacy evaluation by the conditional reliability indices. First, the seasonal property, diurnal distributions, and autocorrelation of wind speeds at a particular site are investigated with the practical observed wind speed data, and several typical wind speed simulation methods are discussed. Then, after analyzing the drawbacks of the traditional unconditional expected-value-based reliability indices, a series of conditional reliability indices are proposed, making it possible to incorporate risk preference into the reliability assessment. Furthermore, an adequacy evaluation process based on sequential Monte Carlo approach is established. Finally, three wind power integration scenarios are designed in the modified IEEE-RTS, and the impacts of different wind speed simulation methods on the conditional reliability indices in the three scenarios are thoroughly compared. Numerical results have shown that time series methods agree well with the observed wind speed method in the conditional reliability indices; the conditional reliability indices in the probability sampling method present the property of high frequency and short duration, especially in the high damage domain; the mean observed wind speed method leads to relatively optimistic results, with higher conditional probability of the healthy state and lower conditional probabilities of the marginal and at-risk states; and the healthy state in this method is of lower occurrence frequency and longer duration. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keyword:

adequacy evaluation conditional reliability indices reliability assessment time series analysis wind speed simulation

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xie Shaoyu; Wang Xiuli; Qu Chong; Wang Xifan; Guo Jingli] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie Shaoyu]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang Xiuli]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Qu Chong]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang Xifan]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Guo Jingli]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.

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Source :

International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems

ISSN: 2050-7038

Year: 2015

Issue: 2

Volume: 25

Page: 359-373

1 . 0 8 4

JCR@2015

2 . 8 6 0

JCR@2020

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:138

JCR Journal Grade:4

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 11

SCOPUS Cited Count: 20

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 4

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