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Author:

Zhang, Yao (Zhang, Yao.) | Wang, Jianxue (Wang, Jianxue.)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

Probabilistic forecasts provide quantitative information in relation to energy uncertainty, which is essential for making better decisions on the operation of power systems with an increasing penetration of wind power. On the basis of the k-nearest neighbors algorithm and a kernel density estimator method, this paper presents a general framework for the probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation, especially for wind power generation. It is a direct and non-parametric approach. Firstly, the k-nearest neighbors algorithm is used to find the k closest historical examples with characteristics similar to the future weather condition of wind power generation. Secondly, a novel kernel density estimator based on a logarithmic transformation and a boundary kernel is used to construct wind power predictive density based on the k closest historical examples. The effectiveness of this approach has been confirmed on the real data provided for GEFCom2014. The evaluation results show that the proposed approach can provide good quality, reliable probabilistic wind power forecasts. (C) 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

Coordinate descent algorithm Kernel density estimator k-nearest neighbors Point forecasting Probabilistic forecasting Wind power

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Yao; Wang, Jianxue] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Yao]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Jianxue]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China.

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Source :

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

ISSN: 0169-2070

Year: 2016

Issue: 3

Volume: 32

Page: 1074-1080

2 . 6 4 2

JCR@2016

2 . 8 2 5

JCR@2019

ESI Discipline: ECONOMICS & BUSINESS;

ESI HC Threshold:129

JCR Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 66

SCOPUS Cited Count: 82

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 4

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