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Author:

Zhang, Yao (Zhang, Yao.) | Wang, Jianxue (Wang, Jianxue.)

Indexed by:

CPCI-S EI Scopus

Abstract:

Probabilistic forecasting provides quantitative information of energy uncertainty, which is very essential for making better decisions in power system operation with increasing penetration of wind power and solar power. On the basis of k-nearest neighbor and kernel density estimator method, this paper presents a general framework of probabilistic forecasts for renewable energy generation. Firstly, the k-nearest neighbor algorithm is modified to find the days with similar weather conditions in historical dataset. Then, kernel density estimator method is applied to derive the probability density from k nearest neighbors. This approach is demonstrated by an application in probabilistic solar power forecasting. The effectiveness of our proposed approach is validated with the real data provided by Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014.

Keyword:

deterministic forecasting kernel density estimator k-nearest neighbor probabilistic forecasting solar power

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Yao; Wang, Jianxue] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Yao]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Jianxue]Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Xian 710049, Peoples R China.

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Source :

2015 IEEE POWER & ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING

ISSN: 1944-9925

Year: 2015

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 2

SCOPUS Cited Count: 43

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 8

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